Vol 23, No 5 (2018)

Article purpose. To present the binary method of the epidemiological analysis of infectious incidence recommended for the characteristic of factors of social-and-ecological systems her defining. Materials and methods. The method of the binary analysis is developed on the basis of the methods of complex studying of epidemic process used in domestic epidemiology which have received the name “retrospective epidemiological analysis of incidence”. For demonstration long-term and annual dynamics of incidence of chicken pox in Vladivostok from 1997 to 2009 is used. The received results. In the binary analysis consecutive division of cumulative incidence into components is carried out, in the beginning, on the leading approaches characterizing biological, social and natural essence of epidemic process and then, by additional criteria, allows to create the statistical model of the studied object suitable for a research of the global phenomena. From biological factors - participation and a role of the infectious and immunological mechanism. Among natural factors - seasonal and year-round elements; social factors - casual and natural manifestations. In Vladivostok from 1997 to 2009 the share of periodic incidence has made 16,7%, basic incidence - 83,3%. Basic incidence was formed due to year-round incidence (17,8%) and seasonal, the main share. In general 82,2% are the share of seasonal incidence and, it forms both the most part of basic incidence, and all periodic incidence. Share of random factors in incidence not of a bike (7,3%). Incidence is formed by mainly natural factors - 92,7%. Conclusion. Use of a binary method has allowed to create logical model of development of epidemic process at chicken pox in Vladivostok. The accounting of a role of the leading factors will be useful to optimization of epidemiological surveillance. The technique of studying of structural elements of the social-and-ecological systems defining formation of incidence of the population is presented in article. Biological factors are the participation and the role of the infectious and immunological mechanism. Natural factors are seasonal and year-round elements; social factors are casual and natural manifestations.

The widespread increase in morbidity and the registration of major measles outbreaks in recent years require the development of new technologies to control the infection. Technologies should be based on the prognosis of morbidity. The aim of the study was to predict the development of the situation in the near and long term in order to determine the adequate technologies of infection control in the metropolis at the stage of its elimination on the basis of a mathematical simulation of the epidemic process of measles. Materials and methods. A simulation model to forecast the incidence of measles was developed using special software AnyLogic Professional 7.0. The model included the main determinants of the epidemic process, established by the results of their own research and literature data. The results of the epidemic process modeling were uploaded to the database. Further work was carried out in the database management system Microsoft SQL Server Management Studio. Analysis and graphical processing of the results are performed using comprehensive software for business intelligence Power BI. Results. It is established that at low (50-60%) coverage of vaccinations of children in the decreed ages and the population as a whole, the probability of measles outbreaks is high both in the short and long term. The increase in vaccination coverage to 90-95% leads to an increase in the period of epidemic well-being, but the likelihood of an outbreak remains. With revaccination every 10 years, at least 60% of the population remains stable for 30 years and the spread of infection does not occur. With the coverage of revaccinating vaccinations 80% of the population-the epidemiological situation remains stable for 50 years. Conclusion. The simulation model of measles morbidity forecast for the near and long term, built with the main determinants of the epidemic process, allows us to predict the development of the epidemic situation in the territory of a large industrial city. Also, the model allows to determine the priority areas for the elimination of measles infection, namely: strict control of the timeliness and completeness of vaccination coverage of children in the decreed age (at least 95%) and maintaining a high immune layer of the population as a whole, which can be provided during the planned revaccination against measles every 10 years.

The article presents the results of epidemiological studies of the role of rotavirus in the development of acute diarrheal diseases in children in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Practice of new epidemiological criteria allowed to differentiate the different intensity of the epidemic process and the manifestation of epidemiological patterns of rotavirus infection depending on the region of the republic. The probability of participation of rotaviruses in the formation of the epidemic process in acute diarrheal diseases is proved. The study was conducted in two regions of the republic differing from each other by economic and social conditions. The material for this study was the data obtained as a result of a serological study of feces samples taken from patients with acute diarrheal diseases before the age of 5 years. When examining 1597 children with acute diarrhea in 532 (33.3%) cases, we were able to establish the presence of rotavirus antigens in the feces. Summarizing the above, we can assume that in the Republic of Uzbekistan, rotaviruses occupy one of the leading places in the etiological structure of acute diarrheal diseases, especially in younger age groups.

We present an analysis of 28 leptospirosis cases, associated with abroad traveling, and registered from 2011 to 2017 years. The relative ratio of leptospirosis with other imported infectious diseases is shown, and clinical and epidemiological features of imported leptospirosis cases were described.

The article contains the main milestones of life and career of professor Filatov. It was noted that during 25 years of scientific and teaching activity N.F. Filatov has made a significant contribution to the development of world Pediatrics. He is the author of over 70 scientific works, including “a Short textbook of pediatric diseases” (1893), aged 12 editions, and “Clinical lectures” (1900). His monograph “Lectures on acute infectious diseases” (1885) through 4 editions, “Semiotics and diagnosis of childhood diseases” (1890) - 9 editions, it is translated into German, Czech, Italian, Hungarian and French. In the monographs and manuals N.F. Filatov studied many of pokoleniya-pediatricians. He described the infectious disease named Filatov scarlatinal rubella. She was later described by the British physician Duxom; one of the presently used names of the disease - a disease Filatov-Dukes. In the first edition of “Lectures on infectious diseases” N.F. Filatov described is not known until the time of infectious mononucleosis, which he called idiopathic inflammation of the cervical lymphatic glands. The disease is now often called a disease Filatov. In 1895 N. F. Filatov, described an important diagnostic sign of measles is the appearance of catarrhal period of illness 1 - 2 days before appearance of rash spot grayish-white lesions on the mucosa of lips and cheeks. As was established later, this sign was first described by A.P. Belsky in 1890, then regardless of him. F. Filatov, and in 1896 Aplicom. In the literature, this symptom is known as spots Belsky-Filatova-Koplik. N.F. Filatov described the pathogenesis of some forms of edema syndrome in children, published works on prolonged afebrile forms of the flu. N. F. Filatov developed a clinical-physiological direction in Pediatrics. He created a large school of domestic pediatricians. Among his students were V.I. Molchanov and G.N. Speransky.