Analysis of long-term dynamics of morbidity by the method of complex assessment at different territorial levels

BACKGROUND: A comparative epidemiological analysis of the primary incidence of tuberculosis was performed using its standard approach with a generalized indicator that considers the main statistical criteria for incidence. The “sensitivity” of the method may vary depending on the population from analyzed territories.

AIM: This study aimed to perform a comparative assessment of the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in different territories based on the standard incidence rate and modified method of its integral assessment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study of the dynamics of the incidence of tuberculosis in the total population from the federal districts (FD) of Russia and participants from the Siberian Federal District (SFD) and urban municipalities of the Irkutsk Region (a structural unit of the SFD) between 2005 and 2019 was performed. Based on the obtained integral indicators, a generalized visibility coefficient was calculated.

RESULTS: A significant decrease in the incidence of TB was found in all patients from FD and SFD participants. Assessment of the average long-term incidence rates showed that the maximum discrepancy between ranking places was inversely proportional to the size of the studied territories: 1.5 positions, at the level of the FD; two positions, at the level of regional formations; and five positions, at the level of urban settlements.

CONCLUSIONS: The integral assessment method can be used in the primary analysis of morbidity in all types of infectious and noninfectious pathologies. The generalized morbidity criterion expands the informative possibilities of the standard indicator, contributes to the substantiation of risk areas at the initial stages of epidemiological analysis, and responds more “sensitively” to changes in the epidemiological situation in relatively small areas.