Adequacy of a mathematical model for the prediction of true infections in the south of the Tyumen Region

Leonid Borisovich Kozlov; Козлов Леонид Борисович; T N Tsokova; Цокова Т Н; V V Mefod'ev; Мефодьев В В; D G Gubin; Губин Д Г; Yu P Solodovnikov; Солодовников Ю П; L B Kozlov; Kozlov L B; T N Tsokova; Tsokova T N; V V Mefodyev; Mefodyev V V; D G Gubin; Gubin D G; Yu P Solodovnikov; Solodovnikov Yu P

doi:10.17816/EID40490

Adequacy of a mathematical model for the prediction of true infections in the south of the Tyumen Region

作者: Kozlov L.B.¹, Tsokova TN¹, Mefod'ev VV¹, Gubin DG¹, Solodovnikov Y.P¹, Kozlov LB², Tsokova TN², Mefodyev VV², Gubin DG², Solodovnikov Y.P³
隶属关系:
2. Tyumen State Medical Academy, Russian Agency for Health Care
3. Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Inspectorate for the Protection of Consumer Rights and Human Welfare
期: 卷 15, 编号 2 (2010)
页面: 42-45
栏目: Articles
##submission.dateSubmitted##: 23.07.2020
##submission.datePublished##: 15.04.2010
URL: https://rjeid.com/1560-9529/article/view/40490
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/EID40490
ID: 40490

如何引用文章

详细

The adequacy of a mathematical model for the prediction of water-borne enteric infections and tick-borne encephalitis, which were true for the Tyumen Region, was studied. The expected morbidity from water-borne infections was calculated using a simple time series model and that from tick-borne encephalitis was estimated using a time series model with two seasonal constituents. The developed models provide a rather accurate coincidence of the expected and actual morbidity rates and may be used to predict morbidity in the next year (from 53.8 to 100% for water-borne enteric infections and from 80.7 to 93.9% for tick-borne encephalitis).

关键词

infectious morbidity, prediction, Tyumen Region

参考

Венецкий И. Г., Кильдишев Г. С. Теория вероятности и математическая статистика. - М., 1975.
Ивашев-Мусатов О. С. Теория вероятности и математическая статистика. - М., 1979.
Козлов Л. Б., Кашуба Э. А., Цокова Т. Н. и др. Способ прогноза заболеваемости клещевыми инфекциями. Пат. RU 2294697 C2.
Козлов Л. Б., Цокова Т. Н., Огурцов А. А. и др. Заболеваемость клещевым энцефалитом в Тюменской области "Tumklech". База данных. - А. с. № 2007620363 от 18.10.2007 г., РФ.
Мефодьев В. В., Устюжанин Ю. В., Фольмер А. Я. и др. // Журн. микробиол. - 2007. - № 2. - С. 14-17.
Устюжанин Ю. В., Цокова Т. Н., Козлов Л. Б. База данных "Водозависимые инфекции". А. с. № 2006620087 от 16.03.2006 г., РФ.
Устюжанин Ю. В., Цокова Т. Н., Козлов Л. Б. Прогнозирование заболеваемости водозависимыми инфекциями по югу Тюменской области на 2006-2030 гг. Программа для ЭВМ. А. с. № 20076130989 от 20.07.2007 г., РФ.

补充文件

附件文件

动作

1. JATS XML

下载

用户名
密码
记住我

忘记您的密码?	注册

用户名
密码
记住我

忘记您的密码?	注册

Adequacy of a mathematical model for the prediction of true infections in the south of the Tyumen Region

全文:

详细

关键词

作者简介

Leonid Kozlov

T Tsokova

V Mefod'ev

D Gubin

Yu Solodovnikov

L Kozlov

T Tsokova

V Mefodyev

D Gubin

Yu Solodovnikov

参考

补充文件