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PRINCIPLE OF DYNAMIC BALANCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESS AND THE LIMITS OF WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
- Authors: Zakharov V.V.1
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Affiliations:
- Saint Petersburg State University
- Issue: Vol 513, No 1 (2023)
- Pages: 108-114
- Section: MATHEMATICS
- URL: https://rjeid.com/2686-9543/article/view/647931
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686954323600301
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/GXYUWN
- ID: 647931
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Abstract
The article proposed a new model of the dynamics of growth of the World population, including discrete equations of the dynamics of percentage increases in integral volumes of inflow and outflow and a balance equation of population size. The principle of the dynamic balance of the demographic process and the condition of interval dynamic consistency based on this principle are formulated. A sample example of forecasting the growth of the World population in the period from 2011 to 2021 is given, demonstrating the possibility of building linear dynamic trends in the percentage increase in the integral volume of dead people, dynamically consistent with the corresponding intervals of statistics on the integral volumes of born children of earlier periods. Based on the proposed model, a forecast of the growth of the World population after 2021 was built, assuming that by 2050 the population will reach 9.466 billion, and in 2062 it will reach the maximum level of 9.561 billion, after which the World population will begin to decline and in 2100 will amount to 8.670 billion.
About the authors
V. V. Zakharov
Saint Petersburg State University
Author for correspondence.
Email: v.zaharov@spbu.ru
Russia, Saint Petersburg
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