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REFINED MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS UNDER HIGH INFLATION AND UNSTABLE DEVELOPMENT
- Authors: Sadovnichiy V.A.1, Akaev A.A.2, Zvyagintsev A.I.3, Sarygulov A.I.4
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Affiliations:
- Moscow State University
- Moscow State University Institute of Complex Systems Mathematical Research
- Mikhailovskaya Military Artillery Academy
- St. Petersburg State University of Economics
- Issue: Vol 510, No 1 (2023)
- Pages: 23-28
- Section: MATHEMATICS
- URL: https://rjeid.com/2686-9543/article/view/647860
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686954323700133
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/XJABZF
- ID: 647860
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Abstract
Previously, the authors proposed two mathematical models that describe the dynamics of economic development rates and forecasting inflation rates. The events that took place after February 2022 introduced an element of significant turbulence into the processes of macroeconomic dynamics in Russia, which required some correction of the previous models. This is reflected in this article. The processes simulated on the basis of new models show that in order to restore economic growth and reduce inflation in the medium term, a significant reduction in the interest rate and a steady increase in the money supply are required. It is shown that in the current era of geopolitical changes and the collapse of many liberal market dogmas, the role of the state and planning in managing economic processes is increasing.
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About the authors
V. A. Sadovnichiy
Moscow State University
Author for correspondence.
Email: info@rector.msu.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow
A. A. Akaev
Moscow State University Institute of Complex Systems Mathematical Research
Author for correspondence.
Email: askarakaev@mai.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow
A. I. Zvyagintsev
Mikhailovskaya Military Artillery Academy
Author for correspondence.
Email: azvyagintsev@mail.ru
Russian Federation, St. Petersburg
A. I. Sarygulov
St. Petersburg State University of Economics
Author for correspondence.
Email: dept.cfr@unecon.ru
Russian Federation, St. Petersburg
References
- Акаев А.А., Сарыгулов А.И., Соколов В.Н. // ДАН. 2015. Т. 465. № 6. С. 643–646.
- Акаев А.А., Зиядуллаев Н.С., Сарыгулов А.И., Соколов В.Н. Среднесрочный прогноз динамики развития экономики России // Проблемы прогнозирования. 2016. № 5. С. 37–46.
- Акаев А.А., Зиядуллаев Н.С., Сарыгулов А.И., Соколов В.Н. // Проблемы прогнозирования. 2017. № 3. С. 34–42.
- Poccтaт: https://rosstat.gov.ru/
- Центральный Банк России: https://www.cbr.ru/
- Банк России: http://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/42214/2022_03_ddcp.pdf
- TACC: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/14931285
- TACC: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/16160715
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